A multivariate peaks-over-thresholds model is coupled with counterfactual causation probabilities to attribute heavy rainfall extremes to anthropogenic climate change, using an optimal linear projection to maximize the estimated necessary-causation probability.
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Climate extreme event attribution using multivariate peaks-over-thresholds modeling and counterfactual theory
A multivariate peaks-over-thresholds model is coupled with counterfactual causation probabilities to attribute heavy rainfall extremes to anthropogenic climate change, using an optimal linear projection to maximize the estimated necessary-causation probability.