OO-EPC converts odds to probabilities by enforcing equal profitability confidence across outcomes and outperforms prior odds-only methods on 90k football matches; FL-GLM adds one favourite-longshot bias parameter to a GLM and outperforms standard multinomial and logistic versions.
The favorite/long-shot bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 index futures options: the return to bets and the cost of insurance , year =
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Forecast Sports Outcomes under Efficient Market Hypothesis: Theoretical and Experimental Analysis of Odds-Only and Generalised Linear Models
OO-EPC converts odds to probabilities by enforcing equal profitability confidence across outcomes and outperforms prior odds-only methods on 90k football matches; FL-GLM adds one favourite-longshot bias parameter to a GLM and outperforms standard multinomial and logistic versions.