A personalized Bayesian monitoring framework, built from an interpretable baseline model plus visit-to-visit probability updating, flagged emerging cognitive decline before study-defined worsening in 31% of HRS and 41% of ADNI sustained decliners, at median lead times of 6 and 2 years.
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From population norms to personalized trajectories: interpretable Bayesian forecasting for cognitive decline
A personalized Bayesian monitoring framework, built from an interpretable baseline model plus visit-to-visit probability updating, flagged emerging cognitive decline before study-defined worsening in 31% of HRS and 41% of ADNI sustained decliners, at median lead times of 6 and 2 years.