Simulation-based inference with a Gaussian process emulator trained on ~1300 POSSIS simulations enables rapid, robust kilonova parameter estimation that avoids MCMC biases from likelihood misspecification.
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GJ 1132 b is estimated to have received at least 50 times the cumulative XUV flux of modern Earth with over 95% probability across models, supporting its classification as an atmosphere-free world.
A magnitude offset between low- and high-redshift supernovae beats the Bayesian evidence for flexknot dark energy and reduces DES-5Y/DESI tension.
Pantheon+ delivers tighter SN Ia constraints on Ω_M, w0, wa, and H0 from 1550 events, consistent with a cosmological constant, with SN systematics contributing less than one third to H0 uncertainty.
UNIONS-3500 weak lensing data yields S_8 = 0.831^{+0.067}_{-0.078} in flat LCDM from 2D cosmic shear, consistent with Planck within 1 sigma.
UNIONS weak lensing data constrains S8 to 0.891^{+0.057}_{-0.084} in non-tomographic harmonic space, consistent with Planck at 0.79 sigma under LambdaCDM.
Blue galaxy selection in DES Y3 cosmic shear mitigates IA effects, producing stable parameters with 1.5x smaller S8 uncertainty and improved CMB agreement versus the full sample.
BILBY is validated on simulated compact binary signals and reproduces the eleven GWTC-1 results with configuration and output files provided for reproduction.
citing papers explorer
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Rapid and robust simulation-based inference for kilonovae
Simulation-based inference with a Gaussian process emulator trained on ~1300 POSSIS simulations enables rapid, robust kilonova parameter estimation that avoids MCMC biases from likelihood misspecification.
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The Range of Cumulative XUV Flux on GJ 1132 b
GJ 1132 b is estimated to have received at least 50 times the cumulative XUV flux of modern Earth with over 95% probability across models, supporting its classification as an atmosphere-free world.
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Dynamic or Systematic? Bayesian model selection between dark energy and supernova biases
A magnitude offset between low- and high-redshift supernovae beats the Bayesian evidence for flexknot dark energy and reduces DES-5Y/DESI tension.
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The Pantheon+ Analysis: Cosmological Constraints
Pantheon+ delivers tighter SN Ia constraints on Ω_M, w0, wa, and H0 from 1550 events, consistent with a cosmological constant, with SN systematics contributing less than one third to H0 uncertainty.
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UNIONS-3500 Weak Lensing: III. 2D Cosmological Constraints in Configuration Space
UNIONS-3500 weak lensing data yields S_8 = 0.831^{+0.067}_{-0.078} in flat LCDM from 2D cosmic shear, consistent with Planck within 1 sigma.
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UNIONS-3500 Weak Lensing: IV. 2D cosmological constraints in harmonic space
UNIONS weak lensing data constrains S8 to 0.891^{+0.057}_{-0.084} in non-tomographic harmonic space, consistent with Planck at 0.79 sigma under LambdaCDM.
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Dark Energy Survey Year 3: Blue Shear
Blue galaxy selection in DES Y3 cosmic shear mitigates IA effects, producing stable parameters with 1.5x smaller S8 uncertainty and improved CMB agreement versus the full sample.
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Bayesian inference for compact binary coalescences with BILBY: Validation and application to the first LIGO--Virgo gravitational-wave transient catalogue
BILBY is validated on simulated compact binary signals and reproduces the eleven GWTC-1 results with configuration and output files provided for reproduction.