Proposes variance deltas, an interactive tree-based visualization system that identifies subsets of unobserved quantities explaining posterior uncertainty, with demonstrations on causal inference and polling data.
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Develops TWSF estimator for causal forecasting in panel data by combining synthetic controls with time-series models under low-rank latent factor assumptions, providing finite-sample bounds and asymptotic normality.
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Variance Deltas for Visualizing and Explaining Posterior Uncertainty
Proposes variance deltas, an interactive tree-based visualization system that identifies subsets of unobserved quantities explaining posterior uncertainty, with demonstrations on causal inference and polling data.
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Causal Forecasting in Panel Data: A Two-Way Synthetic Forecasting Approach
Develops TWSF estimator for causal forecasting in panel data by combining synthetic controls with time-series models under low-rank latent factor assumptions, providing finite-sample bounds and asymptotic normality.