Conformal Selective Acting (CSA) fills a gap in conformal methods by providing per-round, pathwise-valid selective risk bounds for adaptive RLVR LLM streams under predictable updates and isotonic calibration.
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The paper derives that calibration-conditional coverage follows a Beta(k, n+1-k) law under continuous i.i.d. exchangeability and quantifies non-i.i.d. departures via Wasserstein distances on transported beta laws, yielding explicit bounds in scale-shift, clustered, and mixing regimes.
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Conformal Selective Acting: Anytime-Valid Risk Control for RLVR-Trained LLMs
Conformal Selective Acting (CSA) fills a gap in conformal methods by providing per-round, pathwise-valid selective risk bounds for adaptive RLVR LLM streams under predictable updates and isotonic calibration.
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Conformal Prediction via Transported Beta Laws
The paper derives that calibration-conditional coverage follows a Beta(k, n+1-k) law under continuous i.i.d. exchangeability and quantifies non-i.i.d. departures via Wasserstein distances on transported beta laws, yielding explicit bounds in scale-shift, clustered, and mixing regimes.