Frontier AI models lose 16-31% trading on Kalshi over 57 days but show better results on Polymarket, with platform design strongly affecting outcomes and prediction accuracy mattering more than research volume.
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Prediction Arena: Benchmarking AI Models on Real-World Prediction Markets
Frontier AI models lose 16-31% trading on Kalshi over 57 days but show better results on Polymarket, with platform design strongly affecting outcomes and prediction accuracy mattering more than research volume.