A time-sensitive betting framework optimizes expected rewards for early rejection in anytime-valid tests, yielding an exponential-decay-optimal (EDO) criterion as a finite-time counterpart to the growth-rate-optimal (GRO) one.
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Introduces backtest e-statistics and e-processes for model-free backtesting of VaR and ES using identification functions, with simulation and data validation.
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Time-sensitive anytime-valid testing
A time-sensitive betting framework optimizes expected rewards for early rejection in anytime-valid tests, yielding an exponential-decay-optimal (EDO) criterion as a finite-time counterpart to the growth-rate-optimal (GRO) one.
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E-backtesting
Introduces backtest e-statistics and e-processes for model-free backtesting of VaR and ES using identification functions, with simulation and data validation.