A cross-validated, perturbation-resampling method to estimate and make inference on the predictiveness curve of a competing risks prediction model, with simulations and a cirrhosis application.
Electricity-Aware Bid Format for Coordinated Heat and Electricity Market Clearing
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abstract
Coordination between heat and electricity markets is essential to achieve a cost-effective and efficient operation of the energy system. In the current sequential market practice, the heat market is cleared before the electricity market and has no insight into the impacts of heat dispatch on the electricity market. While preserving this sequential practice, this paper introduces an electricity-aware bid format for the coordination of heat and electricity systems. This novel market mechanism defines heat bids conditionally on the day-ahead electricity prices. Prior to clearing heat and electricity markets, the proposed bid selection mechanism selects the valid bids which minimize the heat system operating cost while anticipating heat and electricity market clearing. This mechanism is modeled as a trilevel optimization problem, which we recast as a mixed-integer linear program using a lexicographic function. We use a realistic case study based on the Danish electricity and heat system and show that the proposed bid selection mechanism yields a 4.5% reduction in the total operating cost of heat and electricity systems compared to the existing market-clearing procedure while reducing the financial losses of combined heat and power plants and heat pumps due to invalid bids by up to 20.3 million euros.
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Predictiveness Curve Assessment under Competing Risks for Risk Prediction Models
A cross-validated, perturbation-resampling method to estimate and make inference on the predictiveness curve of a competing risks prediction model, with simulations and a cirrhosis application.