Simulation study and Ethiopian cohort data show that particle MCMC and conditional normalizing flows both deliver accurate parameter estimates and forecasts for stochastic compartmental epidemic models with intractable likelihoods.
Assessing the use of influenza forecasts and epidemiological modeling in public health decision making in the united states.Scientific reports, 8(1):12406
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Assessment of Simulation-based Inference Methods for Stochastic Compartmental Models in Epidemiological Research
Simulation study and Ethiopian cohort data show that particle MCMC and conditional normalizing flows both deliver accurate parameter estimates and forecasts for stochastic compartmental epidemic models with intractable likelihoods.