LLMs do not consistently perform Bayesian updates on probabilistic beliefs; heuristic approaches often outperform exact Bayesian computation on downstream tasks, indicating misspecified internal models of the world.
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LLMs are not (consistently) Bayesian: Quantifying internal (in)consistencies of LLMs' probabilistic beliefs
LLMs do not consistently perform Bayesian updates on probabilistic beliefs; heuristic approaches often outperform exact Bayesian computation on downstream tasks, indicating misspecified internal models of the world.