Governing fields and statistics for 4-Selmer groups and 8-class groups

Taking A to be an abelian variety with full 2-torsion over a number field k, we investigate how the 4-Selmer rank of the quadratic twist A^d changes with d. We show that this rank depends on the splitting behavior of the primes dividing d in a certain number field L/k. Assuming the grand Riemann hypothesis, we then prove that, given an elliptic curve E/Q with full rational 2-torsion, the quadratic twist family of E usually has the distribution of $4$-Selmer groups predicted by Delaunay's heuristic. Analogously, and still subject to the grand Riemann hypothesis, we prove that the set of quadratic imaginary fields has the distribution of 8-class groups predicted by the Cohen-Lenstra heuristic.