Under demonstrated JWST noise and ~10° obliquities, order-10 known-plus-undiscovered wide-orbit giants are favorable for single-transit oblateness or Ganymede-moon detections; red noise or low obliquity can erase the yield.
Uncovering the Rapidly Evolving Orbits of the Dynamic TOI-201 System
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abstract
Studying planetary interactions in exoplanet systems informs theories of planet formation and evolution, providing essential context for understanding our own solar system. We combine spectroscopy, transit photometry, transit timing variations, and astrometry to characterize the TOI-201 system. The co-transiting system consists of a super-Earth, warm Jupiter, and massive companion at 5.8, 53, and 2900 day orbital periods, respectively. We perform dynamical simulations to study the past and future of the system. von-Zeipel-Kozai-Lidov oscillations emerge as the most plausible scenario to explain the outer companion's high orbital eccentricity, with planet-planet scattering a possible but less likely contender. Due to non-zero mutual inclinations between the planets, the system is visibly evolving on very short timescales, with the current co-transiting configuration ending in 200 years.
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How Many Transiting Giant Planets Can JWST Search for Moons and Rotational Oblateness?
Under demonstrated JWST noise and ~10° obliquities, order-10 known-plus-undiscovered wide-orbit giants are favorable for single-transit oblateness or Ganymede-moon detections; red noise or low obliquity can erase the yield.