For mean-zero unit-variance random variables with fourth moment at most κ, the sharp one-sided tail V₁(t,κ) is completely mapped into four explicit regimes, with matching certificates and a proof-degree phase transition.
How big should a Stress Shock be?
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abstract
Stress shocks are often calculated as multiples of the standard deviation of a history set. This paper investigates how many standard deviations are required to guarantee that this shock exceeds any observation within the history set, given the additional constraint of kurtosis. The results of this analysis are then used to validate the shocks produced by some stress test models, in particular that of Brace-Lauer-Rado. A secondary application of our results is to investigate three known extensions of Chebyshev's Inequality where the kurtosis is known. It is found that our results give a tighter bound than the well-known inequalities.
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2026 1verdicts
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The Exact Worst-Case Tail Probability under Bounded Kurtosis
For mean-zero unit-variance random variables with fourth moment at most κ, the sharp one-sided tail V₁(t,κ) is completely mapped into four explicit regimes, with matching certificates and a proof-degree phase transition.