Using continuous-time random walks and gamma inter-event times, the authors derive effective master equations for non-Markovian SIR and SIS models and obtain analytical predictions for final outbreak sizes, quasistationary distributions, and disease lifetimes.
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Large deviations in non-Markovian stochastic epidemics
Using continuous-time random walks and gamma inter-event times, the authors derive effective master equations for non-Markovian SIR and SIS models and obtain analytical predictions for final outbreak sizes, quasistationary distributions, and disease lifetimes.