Updated ab initio tidal models predict Earth survives the Sun's giant phases, but outcomes depend strongly on AGB mass-loss rates, with L2 Pup observations as proxy indicating survival while low rates lead to engulfment.
The Very Slow Wind From the Pulsating Semiregular Red Giant L2 Pup
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abstract
We have obtained 11.7 and 17.9 micron images at the Keck I telescope of the circumstellar dust emission from L2 Pup, one of the nearest (D = 61 pc) mass-losing, pulsating, red giants that has a substantial infrared excess. We propose that the wind may be driven by the stellar pulsations with radiation pressure on dust being relatively unimportant, as described in some recent calculations. L2 Pup may serve as the prototype of this phase of stellar evolution where it could lose about 15% of its initial main sequence mass.
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The fate of Earth during the Sun's giant phases: New constraints from ab initio tidal modelling and AGB mass loss
Updated ab initio tidal models predict Earth survives the Sun's giant phases, but outcomes depend strongly on AGB mass-loss rates, with L2 Pup observations as proxy indicating survival while low rates lead to engulfment.