By Euclidean path-integral methods, the authors claim the tunneling probability from a collapsing shell into a frozen star is unity, making the transition inevitable.
Entropy in Black Hole Pair Production
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Pair production of Reissner-Nordstrom black holes in a magnetic field can be described by a euclidean instanton. It is shown that the instanton amplitude contains an explicit factor of $e^{A/4}$, where $A$ is the area of the event horizon. This is consistent with the hypothesis that $e^{A/4}$ measures the number of black hole states.
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Formation of Frozen Stars from collapsing matter by tunneling
By Euclidean path-integral methods, the authors claim the tunneling probability from a collapsing shell into a frozen star is unity, making the transition inevitable.