Self-consistency is a weak, regime-dependent proxy for correctness: positive but small correlations (rho 0.20–0.59), with the most self-consistent frontier model over-confident and wrong 48% of the time at high agreement.
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When LLMs Agree, Are They Right? Auditing Self-Consistency and Cross-Model Agreement as Confidence Signals
Self-consistency is a weak, regime-dependent proxy for correctness: positive but small correlations (rho 0.20–0.59), with the most self-consistent frontier model over-confident and wrong 48% of the time at high agreement.