An autoregressive model with promotion-state dummy variables outperforms judgmentally adjusted forecasts in two FMCG case studies, but with weak statistical validation.
Table 6 clearly indicates the outstanding improvements using different measures such as MSAE (59% improvement), MAE (55% improvement), and MAPE (14% improvement)
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Demand Forecasting in the Presence of Systematic Events: Cases in Capturing Sales Promotions
An autoregressive model with promotion-state dummy variables outperforms judgmentally adjusted forecasts in two FMCG case studies, but with weak statistical validation.