Strong thermal leptogenesis and the absolute neutrino mass scale

We show that successful strong thermal leptogenesis, where the final asymmetry is independent of the initial conditions and in particular a large pre-existing asymmetry is efficiently washed-out, favours values of the lightest neutrino mass $m_1 \gtrsim 10\,{\rm meV}$ for normal ordering (NO) and $m_1 \gtrsim 3\,{\rm meV}$ for inverted ordering (IO) for models with orthogonal matrix entries respecting $|\Omega_{ij}^2| \lesssim 2$. . We show analytically why lower values of $m_1$ require a high level of fine tuning in the seesaw formula and/or in the flavoured decay parameters (in the electronic for NO, in the muonic for IO). We also show how this constraint exists thanks to the measured values of the neutrino mixing angles and can be tighten by a future determination of the Dirac phase. Our analysis also allows to place more stringent constraint for a specific model or class of models, such as $SO(10)$-inspired models, and shows that some models cannot realise strong thermal leptogenesis for any value of $m_1$. A scatter plot analysis fully supports the analytical results. We also briefly discuss the interplay with absolute neutrino mass scale experiments concluding that they will be able in the coming years to either corner strong thermal leptogenesis or find positive signals pointing to a non-vanishing $m_1$. Since the constraint is much stronger for NO than for IO, it is very important that new data from planned neutrino oscillation experiments will be able to solve the ambiguity.