Prediction markets function as focal points for political coordination under certain conditions, with a new Signal Credibility Index identifying when price signals gain behavioral traction, demonstrated via 2024 U.S. election transaction data.
Fabian Reichenbach and Marc Walther
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Price as Focal Point: Prediction Markets,Conditional Reflexivity, and the Politics of Common Knowledge
Prediction markets function as focal points for political coordination under certain conditions, with a new Signal Credibility Index identifying when price signals gain behavioral traction, demonstrated via 2024 U.S. election transaction data.