On seven years of monthly production outage counts from a large ML service, a fine-tuned TimesFM foundation model beats moving-average and autoregressive baselines for total outages, but per root cause the best model varies.
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Evaluation of a Foundational Model and Stochastic Models for Forecasting Sporadic or Spiky Production Outages of High-Performance Machine Learning Services
On seven years of monthly production outage counts from a large ML service, a fine-tuned TimesFM foundation model beats moving-average and autoregressive baselines for total outages, but per root cause the best model varies.