A magnitude offset between low- and high-redshift supernovae beats the Bayesian evidence for flexknot dark energy and reduces DES-5Y/DESI tension.
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Bayesian statistics supplies an automatic Occam's razor that penalizes unnatural models needing precise fine-tuning to agree with data, justifying naturalness arguments without aleatoric uncertainty.
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Dynamic or Systematic? Bayesian model selection between dark energy and supernova biases
A magnitude offset between low- and high-redshift supernovae beats the Bayesian evidence for flexknot dark energy and reduces DES-5Y/DESI tension.
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It's all in your head -- fine-tuning arguments do not require aleatoric uncertainty
Bayesian statistics supplies an automatic Occam's razor that penalizes unnatural models needing precise fine-tuning to agree with data, justifying naturalness arguments without aleatoric uncertainty.