Proposes Latent Interacting Particle Systems with an efficient parameterization of twist potentials to enable approximate posterior inference for coupled continuous-time hidden Markov models via twisted sequential Monte Carlo, demonstrated on a latent SIRS graph model and real wildfire data.
The iterated auxiliary particle filter
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abstract
We present an offline, iterated particle filter to facilitate statistical inference in general state space hidden Markov models. Given a model and a sequence of observations, the associated marginal likelihood L is central to likelihood-based inference for unknown statistical parameters. We define a class of "twisted" models: each member is specified by a sequence of positive functions psi and has an associated psi-auxiliary particle filter that provides unbiased estimates of L. We identify a sequence psi* that is optimal in the sense that the psi*-auxiliary particle filter's estimate of L has zero variance. In practical applications, psi* is unknown so the psi*-auxiliary particle filter cannot straightforwardly be implemented. We use an iterative scheme to approximate psi*, and demonstrate empirically that the resulting iterated auxiliary particle filter significantly outperforms the bootstrap particle filter in challenging settings. Applications include parameter estimation using a particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.
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stat.ML 1years
2025 1verdicts
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Efficient Inference for Coupled Hidden Markov Models in Continuous Time and Discrete Space
Proposes Latent Interacting Particle Systems with an efficient parameterization of twist potentials to enable approximate posterior inference for coupled continuous-time hidden Markov models via twisted sequential Monte Carlo, demonstrated on a latent SIRS graph model and real wildfire data.