Ensemble simulations quantify how input uncertainties in a flux-rope CME model propagate into spreads of 2.4-7.7 h in arrival time and 1-7.6 nT in magnetic field at 1 AU.
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Ensemble modeling of Coronal Mass Ejection dynamics and forecasts at 1 AU with a semi-analytic flux-rope model
Ensemble simulations quantify how input uncertainties in a flux-rope CME model propagate into spreads of 2.4-7.7 h in arrival time and 1-7.6 nT in magnetic field at 1 AU.