A large deviation framework using the Landau distribution fits extreme precipitation at 93% of locations and shows unified return-time curves across emission scenarios, implying much higher future exposure.
Gettelman, et al., The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion
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Forecasting Return Time of Extreme Precipitation by Large Deviation Theory
A large deviation framework using the Landau distribution fits extreme precipitation at 93% of locations and shows unified return-time curves across emission scenarios, implying much higher future exposure.