Zero-shot CHRONOS forecasts are competitive for 5 and 10 year mortality horizons, TimesFM underperforms, and a mortality-trained random forest achieves the lowest SMAPE overall.
Mortality rate forecasting: can recurrent neural networks beat the Lee-Carter model?
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abstract
This article applies a long short-term memory recurrent neural network to mortality rate forecasting. The model can be trained jointly on the mortality rate history of different countries, ages, and sexes. The RNN-based method seems to outperform the popular Lee-Carter model.
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Zero-Shot Forecasting Mortality Rates: A Global Study
Zero-shot CHRONOS forecasts are competitive for 5 and 10 year mortality horizons, TimesFM underperforms, and a mortality-trained random forest achieves the lowest SMAPE overall.