A logistic credibility model with data-driven temporal decay restores calibration slope to 1.00 and reduces exposure-weighted error by 38% versus standard Bühlmann-Straub on US commercial auto held-out data.
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2017.brms: AnRPackage for Bayesian Multilevel Models UsingStan.Journal of Statistical Software80, 1 (2017)
9 Pith papers cite this work, alongside 7,697 external citations. Polarity classification is still indexing.
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Develops MrPlew to express MrP as locally equivalent to calibration weights near observed responses, enabling diagnostics and variance estimation for nonlinear models.
A new process-based dynamic occupancy model with dispersal-pressure colonization and sparse matrices enables large-scale study of range dynamics and disentangles dispersal from habitat effects in non-equilibrium conditions.
Predictively consistent priors let complex Bayesian models match or beat the out-of-sample performance of selected simpler models across linear, logistic, and nonlinear examples without explicit selection.
Large-scale statistical analysis of four harmful language datasets reveals that interactions between annotator characteristics and linguistic cues drive annotation variation, with lexical features and attitudes prominent but patterns varying by dataset.
Large-scale analysis of Artbreeder remix parties finds images simplify and converge on thematic attractors, with trade-offs between novelty, complexity, and party size in human-AI creative lineages.
Song introductions stimulate interest in unfamiliar music primarily through narrative transportation, with cognitive elaboration as a weaker but easier-to-implement secondary factor.
A living Bayesian meta-analysis of 21 studies finds a small positive average effect of generative AI on math learning (g=0.42, CrI [0.13, 0.72]), but the abstract reports different, unsupported Version 4 results.
First results from the SPOTS campaign reveal low average optical polarization (≲10%) and low magnetic field ordering (F_B ≲0.10) across 14 TeV blazars, with stochastic or rotating polarization angles and wavelength-dependent behavior indicating complex, turbulent jet structures.
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Logistic Credibility with Temporal Decay: Extending B\"uhlmann--Straub for Commercial Lines
A logistic credibility model with data-driven temporal decay restores calibration slope to 1.00 and reduces exposure-weighted error by 38% versus standard Bühlmann-Straub on US commercial auto held-out data.
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Locally Equivalent Weights for Multilevel Regression and Poststratification
Develops MrPlew to express MrP as locally equivalent to calibration weights near observed responses, enabling diagnostics and variance estimation for nonlinear models.
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A process-based dynamic occupancy model to study range dynamics under non-equilibrium conditions
A new process-based dynamic occupancy model with dispersal-pressure colonization and sparse matrices enables large-scale study of range dynamics and disentangles dispersal from habitat effects in non-equilibrium conditions.
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To select or not to select: predictively consistent priors instead of model selection
Predictively consistent priors let complex Bayesian models match or beat the out-of-sample performance of selected simpler models across linear, logistic, and nonlinear examples without explicit selection.
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Who and What? Using Linguistic Features and Annotator Characteristics to Analyze Annotation Variation
Large-scale statistical analysis of four harmful language datasets reveals that interactions between annotator characteristics and linguistic cues drive annotation variation, with lexical features and attitudes prominent but patterns varying by dataset.
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Dynamics of collective creativity in AI art competitions
Large-scale analysis of Artbreeder remix parties finds images simplify and converge on thematic attractors, with trade-offs between novelty, complexity, and party size in human-AI creative lineages.
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Let Me Introduce You: Stimulating Taste-Broadening Serendipity Through Song Introductions
Song introductions stimulate interest in unfamiliar music primarily through narrative transportation, with cognitive elaboration as a weaker but easier-to-implement secondary factor.
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LLAMA LIMA: A Living Meta-Analysis on the Effects of Generative AI on Learning Mathematics
A living Bayesian meta-analysis of 21 studies finds a small positive average effect of generative AI on math learning (g=0.42, CrI [0.13, 0.72]), but the abstract reports different, unsupported Version 4 results.
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Spectro-Polarimetric Observations of TeV Sources (SPOTS): First results
First results from the SPOTS campaign reveal low average optical polarization (≲10%) and low magnetic field ordering (F_B ≲0.10) across 14 TeV blazars, with stochastic or rotating polarization angles and wavelength-dependent behavior indicating complex, turbulent jet structures.