Under standard recombination, phantom-crossing dynamical dark energy is preferred at ~97–98.5% probability; early-time fixes to the Hubble tension erase that preference while creating severe ω_m tension with CMB.
Probing dynamics of dark energy with latest observations
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We examine the validity of the $\Lambda$CDM model, and probe for the dynamics of dark energy using latest astronomical observations. Using the $Om(z)$ diagnosis, we find that different kinds of observational data are in tension within the $\Lambda$CDM framework. We then allow for dynamics of dark energy and investigate the constraint on dark energy parameters. We find that for two different kinds of parametrisations of the equation of state parameter $w$, a combination of current data mildly favours an evolving $w$, although the significance is not sufficient for it to be supported by the Bayesian evidence. A forecast of the DESI survey shows that the dynamics of dark energy could be detected at $7\sigma$ confidence level, and will be decisively supported by the Bayesian evidence, if the best fit model of $w$ derived from current data is the true model.
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Exploring the interplay of late-time dynamical dark energy and new physics before recombination
Under standard recombination, phantom-crossing dynamical dark energy is preferred at ~97–98.5% probability; early-time fixes to the Hubble tension erase that preference while creating severe ω_m tension with CMB.