A hybrid coupling-plus-autoregressive normalizing flow trained on a 110-parameter T2K-like near-detector likelihood reaches 98% relative ESS versus 5% for the post-fit Gaussian and matches MCMC flux predictions.
Evidence of Electron Neutrino Appearance in a Muon Neutrino Beam
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abstract
The T2K collaboration: reports evidence for electron neutrino appearance at the atmospheric mass splitting, |\Delta m_{32}^2|=2.4x10^{-3} eV^2. An excess of electron neutrino interactions over background is observed from a muon neutrino beam with a peak energy of 0.6 GeV at the Super-Kamiokande (SK) detector 295 km from the beam's origin. Signal and background predictions are constrained by data from near detectors located 280 m from the neutrino production target. We observe 11 electron neutrino candidate events at the SK detector when a background of 3.3\pm0.4(syst.) events is expected. The background-only hypothesis is rejected with a p-value of 0.0009 (3.1\sigma), and a fit assuming \nu_{\mu}->\nu_e oscillations with sin^2(2\theta_{23})=1, \delta_{CP}=0 and |\Delta m_{32}^2|=2.4x10^{-3} eV^2 yields sin^2(2\theta_{13})=0.088^{+0.049}_{-0.039}(stat.+syst.).
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Flow-Based Surrogates for High-Dimensional Likelihoods in Experimental Neutrino Physics
A hybrid coupling-plus-autoregressive normalizing flow trained on a 110-parameter T2K-like near-detector likelihood reaches 98% relative ESS versus 5% for the post-fit Gaussian and matches MCMC flux predictions.