A prospective benchmark of 8,736 World Cup match forecasts shows that seven frontier LLMs perform comparably, web access adds a small Brier-score improvement, and prompting order and forecast horizon have little effect.
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LLM-SoccerArena: Benchmarking LLMs on Real-World Predictions in Sports
A prospective benchmark of 8,736 World Cup match forecasts shows that seven frontier LLMs perform comparably, web access adds a small Brier-score improvement, and prompting order and forecast horizon have little effect.