A generalization of Elo ratings updates player strengths via the score (log-likelihood gradient) for varied game outcomes, with derived properties of zero expected value, summation to zero, and reversion to unobserved true skills.
(2021): How to extend E lo: a B ayesian perspective
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Elo's heuristic and MLE perspectives coincide for binary logistic cases but demand closed-form noise corrections to scale and home-field parameters for accurate prediction, outperforming the standard approach and showing non-convergence in FIFA rankings.
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Score-Driven Rating System for Sports
A generalization of Elo ratings updates player strengths via the score (log-likelihood gradient) for varied game outcomes, with derived properties of zero expected value, summation to zero, and reversion to unobserved true skills.
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New insights into Elo algorithm for practitioners and statisticians
Elo's heuristic and MLE perspectives coincide for binary logistic cases but demand closed-form noise corrections to scale and home-field parameters for accurate prediction, outperforming the standard approach and showing non-convergence in FIFA rankings.