Response entropy in LLMs rises with missing context on SQuAD while sampling-based confidence stays high, supporting the multiple imputation criterion and introducing a diagnostic for uncertainty reduction by context level.
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2026 3verdicts
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Decision theory shows that LLM cascades are structurally limited by always incurring the cheap model's cost before deciding to escalate, with the best performance given by the envelope of pairwise cascades rather than fixed chains or many stages.
Unsupervised single-generation confidence calibration for reasoning LLMs via offline self-consistency proxy distillation outperforms baselines on math and QA tasks and improves selective prediction.
citing papers explorer
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LLMs as Implicit Imputers: Uncertainty Should Scale with Missing Information
Response entropy in LLMs rises with missing context on SQuAD while sampling-based confidence stays high, supporting the multiple imputation criterion and introducing a diagnostic for uncertainty reduction by context level.
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Is Escalation Worth It? A Decision-Theoretic Characterization of LLM Cascades
Decision theory shows that LLM cascades are structurally limited by always incurring the cheap model's cost before deciding to escalate, with the best performance given by the envelope of pairwise cascades rather than fixed chains or many stages.
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Unsupervised Confidence Calibration for Reasoning LLMs from a Single Generation
Unsupervised single-generation confidence calibration for reasoning LLMs via offline self-consistency proxy distillation outperforms baselines on math and QA tasks and improves selective prediction.