Derives that the MC replica method produces a distribution differing from the Bayesian Laplace approximation by a single computable matrix (residual-weighted Hessian), whose sign and magnitude determine over- or under-estimation of uncertainties in nonlinear models.
Randomized Prior Functions for Deep Reinforcement Learning
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abstract
Dealing with uncertainty is essential for efficient reinforcement learning. There is a growing literature on uncertainty estimation for deep learning from fixed datasets, but many of the most popular approaches are poorly-suited to sequential decision problems. Other methods, such as bootstrap sampling, have no mechanism for uncertainty that does not come from the observed data. We highlight why this can be a crucial shortcoming and propose a simple remedy through addition of a randomized untrainable `prior' network to each ensemble member. We prove that this approach is efficient with linear representations, provide simple illustrations of its efficacy with nonlinear representations and show that this approach scales to large-scale problems far better than previous attempts.
fields
hep-ph 1years
2026 1verdicts
UNVERDICTED 1representative citing papers
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Propagating data noise through the fit: the Monte Carlo replica distribution
Derives that the MC replica method produces a distribution differing from the Bayesian Laplace approximation by a single computable matrix (residual-weighted Hessian), whose sign and magnitude determine over- or under-estimation of uncertainties in nonlinear models.