Derives total-variation Berry-Esseen bounds for quadratic variation of AR(1) processes with second Wiener chaos noise and applies them to mean-reversion estimation.
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abstract
The problem of drawing samples from a discrete distribution can be converted into a discrete optimization problem. In this work, we show how sampling from a continuous distribution can be converted into an optimization problem over continuous space. Central to the method is a stochastic process recently described in mathematical statistics that we call the Gumbel process. We present a new construction of the Gumbel process and A* sampling, a practical generic sampling algorithm that searches for the maximum of a Gumbel process using A* search. We analyze the correctness and convergence time of A* sampling and demonstrate empirically that it makes more efficient use of bound and likelihood evaluations than the most closely related adaptive rejection sampling-based algorithms.
fields
math.PR 1years
2019 1verdicts
UNVERDICTED 1representative citing papers
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AR(1) processes driven by second-chaos white noise: Berry-Ess\'een bounds for quadratic variation and parameter estimation
Derives total-variation Berry-Esseen bounds for quadratic variation of AR(1) processes with second Wiener chaos noise and applies them to mean-reversion estimation.