A large deviation framework using the Landau distribution fits extreme precipitation at 93% of locations and shows unified return-time curves across emission scenarios, implying much higher future exposure.
Sch \"a r, et al., Percentile indices for assessing changes in heavy precipitation events
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Forecasting Return Time of Extreme Precipitation by Large Deviation Theory
A large deviation framework using the Landau distribution fits extreme precipitation at 93% of locations and shows unified return-time curves across emission scenarios, implying much higher future exposure.