Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
Model-independent inference on compact-binary observations
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abstract
The recent advanced LIGO detections of gravitational waves from merging binary black holes enhance the prospect of exploring binary evolution via gravitational-wave observations of a population of compact-object binaries. In the face of uncertainty about binary formation models, model-independent inference provides an appealing alternative to comparisons between observed and modelled populations. We describe a procedure for clustering in the multi-dimensional parameter space of observations that are subject to significant measurement errors. We apply this procedure to a mock data set of population-synthesis predictions for the masses of merging compact binaries convolved with realistic measurement uncertainties, and demonstrate that we can accurately distinguish subpopulations of binary neutron stars, binary black holes, and mixed neutron star -- black hole binaries with tens of observations.
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representative citing papers
The chirp-mass distribution of GW-detected binary black holes shows a ladder of peaks doubling in mass, with a new intermediate peak at 19 solar masses confirming a prior prediction from the hierarchical merger model.
GWKokab is a new modular JAX framework that uses normalizing flow samplers for efficient inference on subpopulations of compact binary mergers.
Pedagogical derivation from first principles of hierarchical Bayesian inference for population properties of compact binaries in the presence of selection effects, with two worked examples.
citing papers explorer
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Measurement prospects for the pair-instability mass cutoff with gravitational waves
Simulations show a 40-50 solar-mass black-hole cutoff is not guaranteed to be confidently recovered from GWTC-4-like catalogs, spurious detections are unlikely, and O4 data would reduce cutoff-mass uncertainty by at least 20 percent while yielding only a lower bound on the carbon-alpha reaction rate
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The Chirp-Mass Ladder: A New Rung Emerges
The chirp-mass distribution of GW-detected binary black holes shows a ladder of peaks doubling in mass, with a new intermediate peak at 19 solar masses confirming a prior prediction from the hierarchical merger model.
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An Implementation to Identify the Properties of Multiple Population of Gravitational Wave Sources
GWKokab is a new modular JAX framework that uses normalizing flow samplers for efficient inference on subpopulations of compact binary mergers.
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Inferring the properties of a population of compact binaries in presence of selection effects
Pedagogical derivation from first principles of hierarchical Bayesian inference for population properties of compact binaries in the presence of selection effects, with two worked examples.