Regime-stratified evaluation on traffic benchmarks shows TSFM accuracy and interval coverage collapse during transitions (MAE 11 mph vs 3 mph overall; coverage to 55%), hidden by free-flow dominance, with BMA augmentation recovering transition coverage.
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Do Time Series Foundation Model Benchmarks Hide Regime-Dependent Failures? Evidence from Traffic Speed Forecasting
Regime-stratified evaluation on traffic benchmarks shows TSFM accuracy and interval coverage collapse during transitions (MAE 11 mph vs 3 mph overall; coverage to 55%), hidden by free-flow dominance, with BMA augmentation recovering transition coverage.