Coin-betting plus a monotonicity-based continuous union bound yields uniform, anytime-valid, variance-adaptive confidence bands for monotonic mean functions such as CDFs.
On a variance dependent Dvoretzky-Kiefer-Wolfowitz inequality
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abstract
Let $X$ be a real-valued random variable with distribution function $F$. Set $X_1,\dots, X_m$ to be independent copies of $X$ and let $F_m$ be the corresponding empirical distribution function. We show that there are absolute constants $c_0$ and $c_1$ such that if $\Delta \geq c_0\frac{\log\log m}{m}$, then with probability at least $1-2\exp(-c_1\Delta m)$, for every $t\in\mathbb{R}$ that satisfies $F(t)\in[\Delta,1-\Delta]$, \[ |F_m(t) - F(t) | \leq \sqrt{\Delta \min\{F(t),1-F(t)\} } .\] Moreover, this estimate is optimal up to the multiplicative constants $c_0$ and $c_1$.
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Uniform mean estimation for monotonic processes
Coin-betting plus a monotonicity-based continuous union bound yields uniform, anytime-valid, variance-adaptive confidence bands for monotonic mean functions such as CDFs.