The death of massive stars - I. Observational constraints on the progenitors of type II-P supernovae

We present the results of a 10.5 yr, volume limited (28 Mpc) search for supernova (SN) progenitor stars. We compile all SNe discovered within this volume (132, of which 27% are type Ia) and determine the relative rates of each sub-type from literature studies : II-P (59%), Ib/c (29%), IIb (5%), IIn (4%) and II-L (3%). Twenty II-P SNe have high quality optical or near-IR pre-explosion images that allow a meaningful search for the progenitor stars. In five cases they are clearly red supergiants, one case is unconstrained, two fall on compact coeval star clusters and the other twelve have no progenitor detected. We review and update all the available data for the host galaxies (distance, metallicity and extinction) and determine masses and upper mass estimates using the STARS stellar evolutionary code and a single consistent homogeneous method. A maximum likelihood calculation suggests that the minimum stellar mass for a type II-P to form is m(min)=8.5 +1/-1.5 Msol and the maximum mass for II-P progenitors is m(max)=16.5 +/- 1.5 Msol, assuming a Salpeter initial mass function (in the range Gamma = -1.35 +0.3/-0.7). The minimum mass is consistent with current estimates for white dwarf progenitor masses, but the maximum mass does not appear consistent with massive star populations. Red supergiants in the Local Group have masses up to 25Msol and the minimum mass to produce a Wolf-Rayet star in single star evolution (between solar and LMC metallicity) is similarly 25-30 Msol. We term this discrepancy the "red supergiant problem" and speculate that these stars could have core masses high enough to form black holes and SNe which are too faint to have been detected. Low luminosity SNe with low 56Ni production seem to arise from explosions of low mass progenitors near the mass threshold for core-collapse. (abridged).