A standard U-Net with MAE pre-training followed by short CRPS fine-tuning via Monte Carlo Dropout matches or exceeds GenCast and IFS ENS probabilistic skill at 1.5° resolution while cutting training compute and inference latency by over 10×.
What if? numerical weather prediction at the crossroads
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U-Cast: A Surprisingly Simple and Efficient Frontier Probabilistic AI Weather Forecaster
A standard U-Net with MAE pre-training followed by short CRPS fine-tuning via Monte Carlo Dropout matches or exceeds GenCast and IFS ENS probabilistic skill at 1.5° resolution while cutting training compute and inference latency by over 10×.