ABI estimates the distance between posterior distributions via conditional quantile regression and uses adaptive rejection sampling with generative proposals to produce likelihood-free posterior approximations that converge to the true posterior.
Deep Generative Quantile Bayes
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abstract
We develop a multivariate posterior sampling procedure through deep generative quantile learning. Simulation proceeds implicitly through a push-forward mapping that can transform i.i.d. random vector samples from the posterior. We utilize Monge-Kantorovich depth in multivariate quantiles to directly sample from Bayesian credible sets, a unique feature not offered by typical posterior sampling methods. To enhance the training of the quantile mapping, we design a neural network that automatically performs summary statistic extraction. This additional neural network structure has performance benefits, including support shrinkage (i.e., contraction of our posterior approximation) as the observation sample size increases. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach on several examples where the absence of likelihood renders classical MCMC infeasible. Finally, we provide the following frequentist theoretical justifications for our quantile learning framework: {consistency of the estimated vector quantile, of the recovered posterior distribution, and of the corresponding Bayesian credible sets.
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stat.ME 1years
2025 1verdicts
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Likelihood-Free Adaptive Bayesian Inference via Nonparametric Distribution Matching
ABI estimates the distance between posterior distributions via conditional quantile regression and uses adaptive rejection sampling with generative proposals to produce likelihood-free posterior approximations that converge to the true posterior.