A modified SIRS model with a feedback-driven recovery rate produces endogenous popularity cycles, and an in-sample comparison to Google Trends finds it closer to residuals than random walks in 67% of queries.
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The Rise and Fall of Ideas' Popularity
A modified SIRS model with a feedback-driven recovery rate produces endogenous popularity cycles, and an in-sample comparison to Google Trends finds it closer to residuals than random walks in 67% of queries.