Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.
Wilks,The large-sample distribution of the likelihood ratio for testing composite hypotheses,The Annals of Mathematical Statistics9(1938) 60
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The Bayesian view of DESI DR2 with unimpeded: Evidence and tension in a combined analysis with CMB and supernovae across cosmological models
Bayesian evidence computation on DESI DR2 plus Planck and supernovae eliminates the frequentist 3.1 sigma preference for w0waCDM over LambdaCDM when using the DES-Dovekie recalibration, yielding ln B = -0.30 favoring the standard model.