An empirically calibrated shipping model shows rerouting reduces some immediate port losses but raises cumulative arrival shortfalls that grow with closure duration, at 3.0% per day for Suez and 7.7% for triple chokepoint closures.
Network disruptions and ripple effects: Queueing model, simulation, and data analysis of port congestion.Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 11(9):1745, 2023
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Adaptive rerouting reshapes impacts of maritime chokepoint disruptions
An empirically calibrated shipping model shows rerouting reduces some immediate port losses but raises cumulative arrival shortfalls that grow with closure duration, at 3.0% per day for Suez and 7.7% for triple chokepoint closures.