Expected Threat model error follows an approximate log-normal distribution, enabling rules of thumb for reliable use in football player evaluation despite unobservable ground truth.
Paper presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, 6–7 March 2026 (2026)
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Model quality in football: Quantifying the quality of an Expected Threat model
Expected Threat model error follows an approximate log-normal distribution, enabling rules of thumb for reliable use in football player evaluation despite unobservable ground truth.