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Stop using root-mean-square error as a precipitation target!

physics.ao-ph · 2025-09-10 · conditional · novelty 5.0

Training precipitation models with Tweedie deviance instead of root-mean-square error improves extreme-rainfall recall in downscaling and improves nowcasting skill, with gains compounding over autoregressive lead times.

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  • Stop using root-mean-square error as a precipitation target! physics.ao-ph · 2025-09-10 · conditional · none · ref 17

    Training precipitation models with Tweedie deviance instead of root-mean-square error improves extreme-rainfall recall in downscaling and improves nowcasting skill, with gains compounding over autoregressive lead times.