The statistical method used to predict AMOC collapse timing from historical sea-surface temperatures is highly sensitive to unaccounted uncertainties and does not reliably constrain the collapse time.
Comprehensive R Archive Network (2017)
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Extrapolation from historical data cannot reliably predict the time of a potential AMOC collapse
The statistical method used to predict AMOC collapse timing from historical sea-surface temperatures is highly sensitive to unaccounted uncertainties and does not reliably constrain the collapse time.