A multi-logistic curve fit to historical AI milestones predicts the current AI wave peaks around 2024 and fades by 2035 to 2040, making an imminent singularity unlikely.
Biever, Chatgpt broke the turing test-the race is on for new ways to assess ai, Nature 619 (2023) 686–689
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Will the Technological Singularity Come Soon? Modeling the Dynamics of Artificial Intelligence Development via Multi-Logistic Growth Process
A multi-logistic curve fit to historical AI milestones predicts the current AI wave peaks around 2024 and fades by 2035 to 2040, making an imminent singularity unlikely.