DPO fine-tuning on outcome-ranked self-play forecasts improves LLM Brier scores by 7 to 10 percent over base and randomized-label controls.
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LLMs Can Teach Themselves to Better Predict the Future
DPO fine-tuning on outcome-ranked self-play forecasts improves LLM Brier scores by 7 to 10 percent over base and randomized-label controls.